The project consists of developing the BIDERATU Integrated Modelling System, an integrated modelling and planning tool which will give decision makers criteria and quantitative information with which to generate and select decarbonisation scenarios by means of assessing disaggregated impacts.

The main attributes of the tool will be:

• • An integrated focus: energy, economy, society and environment.
• • Multisectoral modelling, spotlighting the industrial sector.
• • The inclusion of Circular Economy and Life Cycle Analysis perspectives, combined with AI techniques.

By this means, BIDERATU will constitute a core modelling system, focussing on the energy and economy components of technologies and systems and incorporating methodological aspects that will offer substantial improvements in regard to depth of analysis, such as disaggregated characterisation of the industrial sector, sustainability evaluation tools, the design of circular economy strategies, and AI techniques.

The project, funded by the Basque Government Department of Economic Development, Sustainability and the Environment (ELKARTEK 2021 Programme), has been allocated a budget of approximately €500k, and is slated for completion by December 2022.

BIDERATU is structured into eight major task blocks or Work Packages (WP), as follows:

• • WP1 is a transversal work package, tasked with the conceptual design of the BIDERATU Integrated Modelling System.
• • WP2, WP3, WP4 & WP5 are vertical work packages, tasked respectively with developing models for the multisectoral energy analysis; integrated characterisation of the Basque industrial sector from a perspective of energy transition, the circular economy and sustainability; macroeconomic analysis; and defining energy transition scenarios.
• • WP6 focuses on the use case “Towards a circular, low carbon economy in the Basque Country for 2050: Analysis of potential energy transition scenarios in the industrial sector”.
• • WP7 & WP8 focus respectively on communicating and spreading awareness of and generally coordinating the project.

• WP1. Conceptual design of the BIDERATU Integrated Modelling System

• Leader: BC3
• Contact: Iñaki Arto; 944 014 690.

Work Package 1 is tasked with designing the concept of the BIDERATU Integrated Modelling System and integrating its main models.

Main tasks:

• To design the high-level structure of the integrated modelling system, by means of identifying its essential characteristics and functions.
• To integrate the main components of the integrated modelling system (models, modules, methodologies, etc.), establishing a common modelling framework for their homogeneous design and developing methods, algorithms and interfaces for their integration.

• WP2. Developing models for an integrated, multisectoral, multi-scale energy analysis

• Leader: TECNALIA
• Contact: Eneko Arrizabalaga; 944 430 850.
  

Work Package 2 will model the energy systems in detail, providing a disaggregated definition of their component sectors: industry, services, transport, residential, transformation and distribution, energy import and export, etc. In addition to the baseline situation, the modelling will reflect changes over times in energy demand and consumption, as well as the evolution of energy technologies and vectors that will be key to attaining decarbonisation goals.

Main tasks:

• To build a multisectoral energy model at regional level, based on developing and integrating micro-specific, bottom-up models for each sector. To define values and algorithms for calculating energy balances, incorporating the interrelation between the energy demands of the different sectors.
• To develop algorithms to be used to generate long- and medium-term energy base projections, using AI-ML techniques to analyse time series and regression models and making it possible to identify the correlations between the projected variables and their potential drivers.
• To integrate the life cycle perspective and circular economy concept into prospective regional energy modelling.

• WP3: Integrated characterisation of the Basque industrial sector from a perspective of energy transition, circular economy and sustainability

• Leader: MU-EPS
• Contact: Joan Manuel Fernandez; 943 794 700.

This Work Package will conduct an integrated analysis of the Basque industrial sector with the aim of identifying key processes and technologies for significantly reducing industrial CO2 emissions.

The developments and assessments made by this Work Package will result in a specific module for the disaggregation of the industrial sector, to be integrated into the multisectoral modelling developed by WP2, as a means of giving greater detail to its characterisation of the industry.

Main tasks:

• To identify and characterise key Basque industries from the point of view of their CO2 emission levels.
• To provide a disaggregated characterisation of the processes, activities and value chains of key industries.
• To develop a taxonomy of technology trends, business models and industrial scenarios in the field of energy efficiency, decarbonisation, the circular economy and sustainability.
• To identify, define and characterise circular economy and industrial sustainability indicators.

• WP4. Developing a multisectoral macroeconomic model

• Leader: BC3
• Contact: Iñaki Arto; 944 014 690.

This Work Package is developing a multisectoral macroeconomic model for the Basque Country, with a dynamic, input-output, econometric focus, with which to analyse the socioeconomic implications of decarbonisation policies and scenarios.

Specifically, it is updating and developing the DERIO model, developed by BC3 and used to evaluate the Basque Country 2050 Climate Change Strategy, by means of extending the homes module, developing a public sector module, improving the energy use and production model and modelling international trade.

Main tasks:

• To develop a homes module, which will involve modelling the income, wealth and consumption of 2000 homes representative of the Basque population.
• To develop the businesses module, using an input-output focus to describe the behaviour of 88 sectors and 105 products, and linking their production structures with the demand for production factors (capital, labour, energy and other intermediate factors).
• To develop the public sector module, that will link government spending components with other areas of the economic model, using a series of equations to describe how they interact with homes and businesses.
• To integrate and validate the macroeconomic model.

Visión simplificada del modelado macroeconómico en BIDERATU 

• WP5. Defining energy transition scenarios and supporting decision-making processes

• Leader: TECNALIA
• Contact: Eneko Arrizabalaga; 944 430 850.

This Work Package is developing methods to define energy transition scenarios in a structured, coherent manner, based on mass automated generation using AI-ML and criteria weighting to prioritise said scenarios.

Main tasks:

• Critical analysis of existing methods, based on multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aimed at supporting decision-making processes.
• To develop an advanced new method, based on MCDA and AI, to optimise the decision-making process.
• To design decarbonisation scenario generation and evaluation algorithms that simultaneously consider the rollout of a combination of technologies and strategies applied to each sector.

•WP6. Towards a circular, low-carbon economy in the Basque Country by 2050: Analysis of potential energy transition scenarios in the industrial sector

• Leader: CLUSTER DE ENERGÍA
• Contact: Jose Ignacio Hormaeche; 944 240 211.

The primary aim of this Work Package is to conduct a concept test on the integrated modelling environment in order to evaluate and validate the results of the tool by simulating a range of sustainable, competitive decarbonisation scenarios for the industrial sector in the context of the Basque Country energy transition towards a circular, carbon-neutral economy by 2050.

Main tasks:

• To gather and analyse the information and context data required to simulate the scenarios covered by the model.
• To introduce the data into the tool and adapt the three main models – multisectoral energy, macroeconomic and scenario generation and decision-making.
• To define alternative scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Basque Country industrial sector by 2050, with regard to measures, actions and alternative technologies.

• WP7. Communication and dissemination

• Leader: BASQUE ENERGY CLUSTER (CLUSTER DE ENERGÍA)
• Contact: Jose Ignacio Hormaeche; 944 240 211.

The main aim of Work Package 7 is to define and roll out the strategy for communicating the developments and outcomes of the project, maximising its visibility with regard to identified stakeholders and driving the transfer of the knowledge and technologies developed.

• WP8. Project general coordination

• Leader: TECNALIA
• Contact: Eneko Arrizabalaga; 944 430 850.

This Work Package is tasked with the technical and financial management of the BIDERATU project.